Thursday, September 3, 2009

Faulty Reasoning and Flawed Conclusions

At the 8-24-09 selectmen's meeting, when confronted with citizens' questions about the reason(s) for higher tax bills, Interim Town Manager Mike Thorne and Selectman Troy Ripley made 3 statements that should be challenged.

Mr. Thorne says his predecessor "backed out nearly $100,000 in anticipated revenue (from lower excise taxes and a dip in state revenue sharing) in the budget she crafted shortly before being fired." (Advertiser-Democrat, 9-3-09, p.4A).

What is the source for this $100,000 figure? "Backed out" implies that the figure was in something and was later removed to change the budget picture.

The budget we passed in June shows no such thing--and it wouldn't, because such a calculation would be in the revenue budget, which, while it is a public document, is not something many people are aware of.

The revenue budget is used by the town manager to calculate the mil rate for a new fiscal year's taxes. Roughly speaking, it estimates an upcoming fiscal year's revenue based on the prior fiscal year's revenue history. Information is collected until June 30. There is a final estimation in July, used to finalize the revenue budget and set the mil rate, followed by the August commitment of taxes and sending out of tax bills.

Did Mr. Thorne, prior to the commitment of taxes, finalize the revenue budget? Manager Jackson was not allowed to - her work would have been left unfinished. Is that what he used? Ask at the town office. The records used to base the manager's decision are public.

As for Mr. Ripley's blaming the tax increase on "anticipated changes in excise tax collections," [ibid] that's definitely something neither he nor a revenue budget can do: predict, count on, or anticipate the outcome of the November election.

Ripley's statement that "some of the tax hike could be attributed to an increase in the overlay" [ibid] is suspect. Since the tax abatement figure has remained fairly constant over the last few years, and it's such a miniscule part of the overall budget, how could it suddenly be big enough to account for a tax increase?

Voters need to be asking questions.